SparkVlog

Although the closer role remains volatile across MLB, 2022 produced a solid return on investment at the top of the preseason draft tiers. In fact, of the Top 10 relievers taken in cumulative ADP (FantasyPros), only two rated as busts: Aroldis Chapman and Giovanny Gallegos. They each accrued at least nine saves, but did not end the season with the primary save share for their respective teams.

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Two things worth considering when targeting closers in 2023: Comfort level in targeting late-round relievers, or paying the premium for an anchor, then adding saves as the season progresses. Know your format, have a plan and play to your strength(s).

The sleeper: Alex Lange (DET)

Taking Lange late in drafts may require a bit of patience, but he represents the type of upside fantasy players seek out. He led Tigers relievers in appearances (71), innings (63.1), holds (21), strikeouts (82) and swinging strike percentage (19.1).

He ended the season with scoreless outings in 13 of his final 14 appearances. Lange also led all American League relievers with a 44.1 whiff rate and ranked second among qualified relievers. Reducing his walk percentage unlocks the potential of his swing-and-miss stuff. Lange recorded a 24.3 swinging strike rate with his change-up and a 27.1 swinging strike percentage with his slider. If given the primary save share, he could rack up 20 or more this year.

The turnaround: Josh Hader (SD)

This feels like cherry-picking, but this talented closer went through personal issues, along with being traded in the midst of his struggles. Once he settled in with the Padres, he converted seven of his final eight save chances with 14 strikeouts versus two walks in 11.1 innings. Over the past three seasons, Hader ranks third in saves (87), third in K:BB percentage (30.4), fourth in strikeouts (212) and 13th in WHIP (1.04).

The No. 2 closer I will outbid you for: Pete Fairbanks (TB)

Recommending a Rays reliever always comes with trepidation. However, he converted all eight of his save chances, and five holds, over his final 21 games, with an eye-popping 35:3 K:BB. This resulted in a 40.2 K:BB percentage, a minuscule 0.67 WHIP and career-best swinging strike rate of 17 percent in this 21-game sample. It’s tough expecting these types of results over a full season, but if he remains healthy, a 20-save season could be in the offing along with ratio protection, even with regression baked in. First runner-up, Clay Holmes.

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Prospect to watch: Garrett Acton (OAK)

Forecasting who may receive save chances as a rookie can be difficult. Starting with a team in a rebuild makes sense in this regard. Acton recorded 25 saves in college and pitched well at Triple-A despite it being a very hitter-friendly environment. Through 42.1 innings at that level last season, he owned a 50:15 K:BB with three saves. First year manager Mark Kotsay used a “hot hand” approach in leverage situations last season, and if Acton pitches well early on, he could receive save chances in the second half.

Three relievers on the rise

1. Andrés Muñoz (SEA): In the second half, he led Seattle relievers in K:BB percentage (31.4), SIERA (1.79), WHIP (0.71) and swinging strike rate (22.7 percent). Seattle’s team concept of sharing high-leverage situations caps his saves upside, but his strikeouts should not be overlooked as a second reliever in 12-team formats.

2. Camilo Doval (SF): Tweaking his arsenal unlocked a new level of production for the talented Giants closer. Small sample sizes can be misleading, but in September he recorded two wins, converted all eight save chances with a 14:2 K:BB and 0.85 WHIP over 11.2 innings. Sowing the seeds of a potential breakout for next season in real time should not be overlooked.

3. David Bednar (PIT): Bednar surged in the first half, taking over a supposed shared leverage ladder as the closer. Before his back issues emerged, he converted 16 of 20 save chances in the first half. Health will be a major factor in his valuation for 2023. Can he put together a full season as the closer?

Three relievers on the decline

1. Kenley Jansen, Boston: Changing teams for the second time in two years, Jansen represents a reliable source of saves, but will his ratios remain intact with his move into the AL East? Yes, he’s recorded at least 30 saves in each of the past eight full seasons (ignoring 2020). However, his K-BB rate declined by 11 percent in the second half last year (18.3 K-BB) from his strong 29.3 K-BB percentage in the first half. His swinging strike rate also fell by 2.4 percent in the second half. Entering his Age-35 season on a team forecasted for fewer wins than Atlanta and lingering health issues, he may not be worth his price point for the upcoming season.

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2. Gregory Soto (PHI): Since the start of 2021, he’s converted 48 of 52 save chances (92.3 percent) and represents the only reliever with at least 45-plus saves in this time frame and four or fewer blown saves. He also became one of six pitchers in MLB history with at least 30 saves and 11 losses in the same season. Usually accompanying Raisel Iglesias on a list like this benefits a reliever, but not necessarily in this circumstance. If the slider does not regain past form, he may be a bridge reliever, and by no means a lock for a save share as a result of his trade to a contending team.

3. Paul Sewald (SEA): Like Hendriks, it may be the start of the decline, but Sewald recorded a 19.2 K:BB percentage in the second half last year and has seen this statistic go down since his debut with Seattle in the first half of 2021. Monitor his swinging strike rate and home runs allowed very closely at the onset of 2023, but if he slips, bigger leverage roles may be taken by Muñoz and Matt Brash as the year progresses.

2023 Top 40 Relievers (ROTO)

1. Edwin Díaz, NYM
2. Josh Hader, SD
3. Emmanuel Clase, CLE
4. Jordan Romano, TOR
5. Félix Bautista, BAL
6. Ryan Helsley, STL
7. Ryan Pressly, HOU
8. Raisel Iglesias, ATL
9. Devin Williams, MIL
10. Kenley Jansen, BOS
11. Camilo Doval, SF
12. Clay Holmes, NYY
13. Daniel Bard, COL
14. Pete Fairbanks, TB
15. Alexis Díaz, CIN
16. Scott Barlow, KC
17. David Bednar, PIT
18. Andrés Muñoz, SEA
19. Paul Sewald, SEA
20. Jorge López, MIN
21. Carlos Estévez, LAA
22. José Leclerc, TEX
23. Seranthony Domínguez, PHI
24. Jhoan Durán, MIN
25. Daniel Hudson, LAD
26. Alex Lange, DET
27. Kyle Finnegan, WAS
28. Trevor May, OAK
29. Reynaldo López, CHW
30. Kendall Graveman, CHW
31. Evan Phillips, LAD
32. Craig Kimbrel, PHI
33. Dylan Floro, MIA
34. Adbert Alzolay, CHC
35. Taylor Rogers, SF
36. Jason Adam, TB
37. Aroldis Chapman, KC
38. Brusdar Graterol, LAD
39. Hunter Harvey, WAS
40. Brandon Hughes, CHC

** There’s no Arizona closer ranked since it will be a spring training battle for leverage roles.

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(Top photo: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)

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